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Fantasy Receiving Shares


Everyone deals with different obstacles on their way to achieving their goals or their definition of success, and while some use their own standard for measuring other’s success, it is nearly impossible to account for the trials and hardships faced by someone else.  This is a great reason to avoid judgement of others, even those close to you that you know best.  

I like to assume everyone is doing the best they can under their specific circumstances.  After all, there are no objective analytics to help measure effort, privilege, and fulfillment in our lives.

Luckily, when when it comes to fantasy football (one of the most judgmental activities) there are ways to measure success and the external factors that play into it all.     

Output alone is less than ideal for measuring talent or potential.  Maybe your team’s best fantasy asset hit career highs in yardage and touchdowns, but how much of that was based on his situation, offensive system, and supporting cast?  Yes, someone like Antonio Brown is valuable, but when you look at first round wide receivers that are consistently at the top in scoring and see little-to-no change in their future quarterback/offensive scheme (Pittsburgh 3rd in passing yards), you need a way to compare them against lower scoring receivers on other teams to determine true value.

Receiving shares are the percentage of a team’s passing/receiving statistics that a player accounts for.  While a player like Antonio Brown (as you may have guessed) accounts for a large percentage of all his team’s receiving stats, there are other fantasy receivers who maybe only have large shares in their team’s receiving yards or even just touchdowns.  How we read into these shares or percentages can help one predict if a player will rise, fall, or stay stagnant in the following year.

Below is a list of wide receivers and tight ends that finished with 80 standard fantasy points or more, starting with the 2015 leaders.  Displayed are each player’s receptions, receiving yards, touchdowns, and targets, as well as the percentage of the team totals those stats make up.

These shares play a big part in how we will rank and project receivers this offseason.  This same chart helped predict increases in fantasy points for players like Julio Jones, Eric Decker, and Jordan Matthews in 2015 and is but another tool that I will use in later in-depth player analysis and write-ups.

See printable chart with heat map here.

Player Team REC % of Team Rec YDS % of Team YDS TD % of Team TD TAR % of Team TAR PTS
Antonio Brown PIT 136 34.78% 1834 39.84% 10 38.46% 195 33.05% 243
Julio Jones ATL 136 33.17% 1871 42.73% 8 38.10% 204 32.85% 231
Brandon Marshall NYJ 109 30.11% 1502 37.02% 14 42.42% 174 28.81% 223
Allen Robinson JAX 80 22.54% 1400 34.08% 14 40.00% 153 25.21% 217
Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 96 24.49% 1450 33.36% 13 36.11% 159 25.52% 216
DeAndre Hopkins HOU 111 31.01% 1521 39.68% 11 37.93% 192 31.02% 211
Doug Baldwin SEA 78 23.42% 1069 28.21% 14 41.18% 104 21.27% 184
A.J. Green CIN 86 25.75% 1297 33.06% 10 32.26% 132 26.14% 179
Rob Gronkowski NE 72 17.82% 1176 25.64% 11 30.56% 120 19.08% 176
Eric Decker NYJ 80 22.10% 1027 25.31% 12 36.36% 131 21.69% 166
Larry Fitzgerald ARI 109 30.88% 1215 26.32% 9 25.71% 146 25.98% 164
Calvin Johnson DET 88 20.95% 1214 28.82% 9 27.27% 150 23.73% 164
Brandin Cooks NO 84 18.26% 1138 22.90% 9 28.13% 129 19.34% 162
Demaryius Thomas DEN 105 28.53% 1304 32.85% 6 31.58% 176 29.04% 156
Allen Hurns JAX 64 18.03% 1031 25.10% 10 28.57% 104 17.13% 155
Jarvis Landry MIA 111 30.41% 1159 30.41% 4 16.67% 166 28.23% 154
Sammy Watkins BUF 60 20.34% 1047 31.32% 9 39.13% 96 20.65% 152
Jordan Reed WAS 87 22.54% 952 23.25% 11 36.67% 114 20.54% 150
Gary Barnidge CLE 79 21.29% 1043 27.58% 9 45.00% 123 20.20% 149
Jeremy Maclin KC 87 28.06% 1088 33.43% 8 40.00% 124 26.22% 148
Greg Olsen CAR 77 25.67% 1104 30.76% 7 20.00% 123 24.55% 144
Delanie Walker TEN 94 27.49% 1088 31.06% 6 24.00% 134 24.32% 143
Emmanuel Sanders DEN 76 20.65% 1135 28.59% 6 31.58% 137 22.61% 140
Michael Crabtree OAK 85 22.79% 922 23.77% 9 26.47% 146 24.13% 139
Jordan Matthews PHI 85 20.99% 997 24.39% 8 34.78% 128 20.55% 139
T.Y. Hilton IND 69 19.44% 1124 30.35% 5 19.23% 135 21.81% 135
Tavon Austin STL 52 19.05% 473 16.86% 5 45.45% 86 18.18% 135
Tyler Eifert CIN 52 15.57% 615 15.68% 13 41.94% 72 14.26% 135
John Brown ARI 65 18.41% 1003 21.73% 7 20.00% 101 17.97% 134
Ted Ginn Jr. CAR 44 14.67% 739 20.59% 10 28.57% 97 19.36% 133
James Jones GB 50 14.37% 890 25.41% 8 25.81% 100 17.45% 133
Amari Cooper OAK 72 19.30% 1070 27.58% 6 17.65% 130 21.49% 133
Mike Evans TB 74 23.72% 1206 31.31% 3 13.64% 147 27.48% 131
Travis Benjamin CLE 68 18.33% 966 25.54% 5 25.00% 124 20.36% 123
Rueben Randle NYG 57 14.54% 797 18.33% 8 22.22% 90 14.45% 121
Randall Cobb GB 79 22.70% 829 23.67% 6 19.35% 129 22.51% 120
Kamar Aiken BAL 75 17.61% 944 22.10% 5 23.81% 127 18.79% 116
Michael Floyd ARI 52 14.73% 849 18.39% 6 17.14% 89 15.84% 115
Martavis Bryant PIT 50 12.79% 765 16.62% 6 23.08% 92 15.59% 112
Golden Tate DET 90 21.43% 813 19.30% 6 18.18% 128 20.25% 111
Willie Snead NO 69 15.00% 984 19.80% 3 9.38% 102 15.29% 109
Travis Kelce KC 72 23.23% 875 26.88% 5 25.00% 101 21.35% 109
Pierre Garcon WAS 72 18.65% 777 18.97% 6 20.00% 110 19.82% 108
Benjamin Watson NO 74 16.09% 825 16.60% 6 18.75% 109 16.34% 108
Julian Edelman NE 61 15.10% 692 15.09% 7 19.44% 88 13.99% 107
Donte Moncrief IND 64 18.03% 733 19.79% 6 23.08% 105 16.96% 104
Tyler Lockett SEA 51 15.32% 664 17.52% 6 17.65% 68 13.91% 104
Alshon Jeffery CHI 54 16.17% 807 22.03% 4 19.05% 93 17.78% 101
Marvin Jones CIN 65 19.46% 816 20.80% 4 12.90% 103 20.40% 101
Markus Wheaton PIT 44 11.25% 749 16.27% 5 19.23% 79 13.39% 100
Terrance Williams DAL 52 15.57% 840 24.20% 3 18.75% 94 17.80% 96
Anquan Boldin SF 69 21.43% 789 23.79% 4 25.00% 110 20.91% 95
Richard Rodgers GB 58 16.67% 510 14.56% 8 25.81% 85 14.83% 94
Jermaine Kearse SEA 49 14.71% 685 18.07% 5 14.71% 68 13.91% 93
Keenan Allen SD 67 15.16% 725 15.79% 4 13.33% 89 13.34% 90
Stefon Diggs MIN 52 17.69% 720 24.59% 4 28.57% 85 18.72% 90
Zach Ertz PHI 75 18.52% 853 20.87% 2 8.70% 111 17.82% 89
Antonio Gates SD 56 12.67% 630 13.72% 5 16.67% 84 12.59% 88
Torrey Smith SF 33 10.25% 663 19.99% 4 25.00% 61 11.60% 87
Rishard Matthews MIA 43 11.78% 662 17.37% 4 16.67% 61 10.37% 86
Nate Washington HOU 47 13.13% 658 17.17% 4 13.79% 95 15.35% 84
Jason Witten DAL 77 23.05% 713 20.54% 3 18.75% 104 19.70% 80

 

There are a number of ways one can analyze these results.  For players like Jarvis Landry, Mike Evans, and Randall Cobb there is a noticeable drop-off in their touchdown share compared to their workload (reception and target shares).  Especially for Evans and Cobb, who have accounted for much larger touchdown shares in the past, we are given easy targets for potential increases in points because of these uncharacteristically high workloads that didn’t happen to turn into paydirt.

You may also notice players with high shares across the board that simply didn’t return elite fantasy production.  The workhorses like Jeremy Maclin or even Anquan Boldin did what they could in offenses that threw for the 3rd and 4th fewest yards in the league.  Much like Decker a year ago, playing for a low passing volume Jets team, these are prime targets to return equal or greater value next year, as it is unlikely their team’s passing totals won’t at least move towards the league average.

Lastly, there are the players that faced issues not shown here like injuries or players that will benefit from roster movement, like a big volume receiver leaving the team.  Golden Tate  fits the latter.  He already accounts for a large portion of Detroit’s receptions, and if Calvin Johnson is not there in 2016, taking huge fantasy shares, Tate’s numbers should increase (especially the touchdowns).  It certainly won’t be a linear trade off.  Calvin’s stats will be dispersed across the team, and the total passing stats for the team will likely go down without one of the top talents in the league to throw to.  However, this a good example of players who are safe to outperform their 2015 totals.

There are plenty of other ways to interpret receiving shares, and we will continue to breakdown our favorite and least favorite 2016 options using these types of resources.  Keep this one bookmarked, as it is likely to come up frequently.

Feel free to send any questions regarding this article or fantasy football to us over on Twitter @RCS_Fantasy or myself @CoryHopwood.  Thank you as always for your support.

 

Image: numberfire.com

 

Resources:

ESPN.com

Myfantasyleague.com

NFL.com

Rotoworld.com

Twitter.com

 

Cory Hopwood
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Cory Hopwood

Senior Writer at Sports Grumble and Riverfront Grumble
Cory Hopwood is the Senior Fantasy Sports Analyst/Writer for Sports Grumble and Riverfront Grumble.He has a focus in NFL and Fantasy Football categories, as well as a background in Math and Engineering.Follow him on Twitter for Fantasy Football consulting and advice.
Cory Hopwood
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